Genetic risk score predicts timing of fractures in elderly people


  • Dawn O'Shea
  • Univadis Medical News
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Researchers from The Netherlands, the US, and Norway, have found a way to predict which patients are likely to have fractures and when those fractures are likely to occur.

The research was presented at the virtual 53rd annual conference of the European Society of Human Genetics.

The researchers studied the fracture history of 11,351 participants in the Rotterdam Study with up to 20 years of follow-up. Incident non-vertebral fractures were reported in 2,153 (19%) individuals.

The genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed as a weighted sum of the number of putative eBMD-decreaser alleles at 1,031 genetic variants.

An increment of one standard deviation (SD) in the GRS represented an increase of 1.20 (p

In addition, fracture occurred significantly earlier in the former group (event time ratio = 0.95; 95% CI 0.91-0.99).

The results suggest GRS can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates of age at fracture. The study further demonstrates how a suboptimal epidemiological predictive tool, as ultrasound measurements for fracture prediction, is leveraged within a genetic framework.